Population decline: Experts predict Thailand’s population will halve by 2084 as birthrate rapidly declines

The decline would result in the working-age population decreasing from 46 million to approximately 14 million, severely impacting both economic development and national security, the nation’s Deputy Prime Minister Somsak Thepsutin warned.

Much of the drop, similarly seen in a number of neighbouring countries, is from the younger generation’s reluctance to have children.

Several factors, including rampant inflation, have largely deterred the current generation from pursuing a traditional family life.

As a result, countries with declining birthrates will see their population age at alarming rate, wreaking havoc on the economy as the number of working age people thins out.

Annual births in Thailand have fallen below 500,000 from over 1 million in 197, while the fertility rate has dropped from 6.29 in 1970 to 1.08 in 2023, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).

NESDC forecasts suggest Thailand’s population will peak at 67.19 million in 2028, then decline to 67 million by 2033 and 66.18 million by 2037.

The percentage of the working-age population is expected to decrease from 66.1 per cent in 2017 to 56.8 per cent by 2037.

Somsak has advocated for campaigns aimed at increasing the birthrate among younger women and supporting births among women over 30 through medical technology and policies that foster a supportive life and work environment.

The Ministry of Social Development and Human Security has also held discussions on how to address the country’s mounting dilemma.

The outcomes of the workshop will be presented at a United Nations conference on population at the end of April, with the goal being to prompt international collaboration to tackle the issue.

Authorities in Japan have been sounding the alarm bells for years now, as birthrates has continue to plummet in the island nation of 125 million.

Japan’s birthrate has been falling since 1973 after peaking at about 2.1 million births a year.

By 2040, the birth rate is projected to fall to just 740,000.

“The pace is even slower than last year … I understand that it is a critical situation,” Mr Matsuno said.

Applying current trends, Japan’s population is estimated to shrink by almost 40 million in the next 40 years, with experts predicting it to drop below 90 million by 2060.

Japan provides payments of subsidies for pregnancy, childbirth and child care, however, the provisions to support new families have not eased the decline.

Neighbouring nations China and South Korea have also recorded steep birthrate declines, with the latter recording the lowest rates in the world.

The problem is also rearing its head in Europe, with countries like Bulgaria (22.5 per cent), Lithuania (22.1 per cent), Latvia (21.6 per cent), Ukraine (19.5 per cent) and Serbia (18.9 per cent) registering some of the most rapidly declining populations on the planet.

Figures released by the South Korean government showed births per woman had dropped to 0.81 — down from 0.84 the previous year.

“At the global level, population decline is driven by low and falling fertility levels,” a UN report on the state of population growth read.

“In 2019, more than 40 per cent of the world population lived in countries that were at or below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman; in 2021, this share climbed to 60 per cent.”

The UN also indicated that “while the status quo might be comfortable for many, we need to recognise that the notion of a stable population is unrealistic”.