Russia shooting: Grim theory after deadly concert attack

One hundred thirty-three people have been killed and 145 injured after gunmen stormed the Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk, where Russian pop group Picnic was preparing to play, and opened fire on Friday night local time.

Eleven people, including four “terrorists”, have been arrested over the attack, with Putin describing those responsible as “criminals (who) were cold-blooded and purposefully going to kill, shoot our citizens and our children at point-blank range”.

Sergey Radchenko, a historian and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, warned “things are certain to get much, much worse for Russians” following the attack.

“Terrorism is a familiar threat to Russians, and Putin has a history of opportunistically using their fear of terrorism to consolidate his grip on power. (That’s a benign view, of course, but there’s no absolute need to embrace conspiracy theories to make this point),” Dr Radchenko wrote on X.

He said Putin has a “clear” goal – “more internal repression” and “mobilisation of war”.

“Russia has become a giant outhouse, and things are certain to get much, much worse for Russians and for the unfortunate weakness of Russia’s terminal illness. To be fair, the trends have long pointed in this direction.”

Matthew Sussex, a Russia expert and associate professor at the Australian National University, has also warned Russia is expected to respond with “extreme violence”.

Speaking to BBC News, Professor Sussex cited the aftermath of the 2002 Moscow theatre siege and the 2004 Beslan school siege as examples.

“Perhaps it’s not so important who carried out the attacks but who the Russian government decides is to blame and who they are going to respond against,” he said.

News agency Reuters is reporting that ISIS-K, a splinter group of Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for the attack on its Telegram channel.

US authorities have said there is “no indication at this time” that Ukraine is involved in the attack.

According to the Russian government, the four suspected gunmen arrested are not Russian citizens.

“They are all foreign nationals,” the interior ministry said in a statement.

It comes after Putin addressed the tragic attack in a televised speech on Saturday and vowed to punish those responsible.

“They tried to hide and moved towards Ukraine, where, according to preliminary data, a window was prepared for them from the Ukrainian side to cross the state border,” he said.

“Whoever they are, whoever is guiding them. I repeat: we will identify and punish everyone who stands behind the terrorists.

“The main thing now is to prevent those who are behind this bloodbath from committing a new crime.”

US’ warning before attack

US officials have confirmed that there has been a steady stream of information – dating back to November – about ISIS wanting to strike in Russia, according to CBS.

On 7 March, the FSB (Russia’s Federal Security Service) said it prevented an attack on a synagogue in Moscow that was being planned by an ISIS cell.

Earlier this month, the US embassy in Moscow issued a security alert after receiving reports that “extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts”.

At the time, US citizens were advised “to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours”

US National Security Council spokesman Adrienne Watson said the US government “shared this information with Russian authorities in accordance with its longstanding ‘duty to warn’ policy.”

But in a speech earlier this week, Putin dismissed warnings and accused the West of making “provocative statements”.

“I’ll remind you of recent, let’s say directly, provocative statements of certain official Western structures about potential terror attacks in Russia,” Putin said.

“All of this looks like obvious blackmail and an attempt to intimidate, destabilise our country.”

Russia’s Health Minister Mikhail Murashko initially said 115 people were in hospital following the attack, including five children, with 60 of the victims seriously injured.

Horror footage of five heavily armed gunmen in camouflage gear has appeared online.

Reports suggest the men entered the concert hall at around 8pm Friday night local time (4am Saturday AEDT) and began shooting at around 6200 people believed to be inside.

It has been reported they gained access through both the main entrance and underground parking lot.

The gunmen also threw a grenade or incendiary bomb which started a large fire in the building, according to a journalist for the RIA Novosti news agency who was at the scene.

“People who were in the hall were led on the ground to protect themselves from the shooting for 15 or 20 minutes,” the RIA Novosti journalist was quoted as saying.

People started crawling out when it was safe, the journalist reported.

The emergency services ministry said on its Telegram channel that about 100 people escaped through the theatre basement while others were sheltering on the roof.

One witness, Vitaly, said he was in the concert hall on one of the balcony levels.

“We heard shots, we didn’t know what happened at first. Then I saw some terrorists shooting people,” he said.

“They threw some petrol bombs, everything started burning. We were led out towards an exit. The exit door was locked so we went to the basement of the venue, where we waited for rescuers.”

Another witness said there was a “terrible crush” as people tried to escape and people “were climbing on their heads to get out”.

An further unnamed witness said the venue was also hosting a children’s ballroom dancing competition at the time of the attack.

“Children and teenagers were at the competition. People came and said there was shooting.

A crush ensued. The children were running out in their ballroom gowns.

Authorities have cancelled all public events in Moscow for the rest of the weekend and said a “terrorist” investigation had been launched.

His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told Russian news agencies that President Vladimir Putin is receiving “constant” updates on the attack.

Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin was the first to confirm that there were deaths in what he called a “terrible tragedy”.

“I offer my condolences to the families of the dead,” he said.

– with AFP