[ad_1] Patrick Everson FOX Sports Betting Analyst Back in November, the Los Angeles Lakers were an afterthought in the NBA Finals odds market. L
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Back in November, the Los Angeles Lakers were an afterthought in the NBA Finals odds market. LeBron James and Co. could be had at odds well beyond 100/1 to win the title.
Fast-forward to May 9, four games into the second round of the NBA playoffs, and it’s a completely different story. The Lakers have surged all the way to the second choice at most sportsbooks, behind only the Boston Celtics.
And that’s creating quite the potential liability issue for oddsmakers.
A few of those bookmakers chimed in with just how bad things might be for the books — and how good for the bettors — if the Lakers turn this into a championship run.
The Long Climb Up
When FOX Bet first posted 2022-23 NBA championship odds back in June, the Lakers were +2500. After L.A.’s 123-109 season-opening loss at Golden State, FOX Bet moved the Lakers out to +3500. Three weeks into the season, the Lakers were a dismal 2-10 as their slide down the odds board continued.
“At the end of November, they reached their price peak of +15000,” FOX Bet trader Tieme Wesselink said.
In laymen’s terms, that’s 150/1, meaning a $100 bet would net a profit of $15,000. But the Lakers hardly looked like a team that could bring such a ticket home.
Still, some bettors remained faithful, taking fliers on L.A., and the Lakers slowly got their way into the playoff picture. Los Angeles finished the regular season 43-39 and was back at its opening odds of +2500 to win the title.
Then L.A. survived the play-in to get the No. 7 seed in the West. That was followed by a 4-2 first-round series victory over the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies. And now the Lakers lead the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors 3-1 in the Western Conference semis.
Crazily, Los Angeles is now +350 to win the NBA championship. Only the Boston Celtics (+160) have shorter odds.
“The Lakers now find themselves at the top of the market for Western Conference (teams), which completes their remarkable turnaround,” Wesselink said. “Their bubble championship season was unexpected, but a Finals run this year would top that surprising playoff run from 2020.”
And a Lakers title would be highly significant for bettors.
“The Lakers constitute our largest liability in the NBA Finals market,” Wesselink said. “The 76ers are our second-worst outcome, but our liability on the 76ers is 30% lower than the Lakers.”
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Similar Refrains Elsewhere
The SuperBook operates in a few states, but its flagship remains Las Vegas, which has long been a big market for Lakers bettors, thanks to its proximity to Southern California. Customers didn’t hesitate to fire even after the Lakers’ dismal start.
“The Lakers are one of our biggest liabilities every season, if not the biggest,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said. “For sure, our customers have been on them all season. We got as high as 200/1 in November and wrote a number of small tickets at those odds. The largest one was for $333.”
But do the math there. That one ticket, should it now cash out, would net a profit $66,600. And as Murray noted, there are several tickets out there at those long-shot odds. One SuperBook customer wagered $1,250 at 40/1, a potential $50,000 win.
As the playoffs began four weeks ago, Murray said the book wrote a number of tickets on the Lakers +1200. Granted, those won’t pay out nearly as much as the flier tickets from November. But consider now that the Lakers are the +300 second choice in the NBA Finals market.
“The Lakers are of course our biggest liability,” Murray said.
At WynnBet, Los Angeles is 3/1 to win the title, behind only the Celtics, who are +145. Both those teams are trouble spots behind the counter, though for WynnBet — which operates in Massachusetts — the Celtics are the much larger issue, thanks to a boatload of betting on the hometown team.
The Lakers are WynnBet’s second-largest liability, just ahead of the Phoenix Suns.
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Alternate Markets
It’s not just the standard NBA championship futures market that has sportsbooks behind the eight-ball with the Lakers. For example, FOX Bet greatly wants to avoid a specific NBA Finals matchup.
“On exact Finals outcome, the Lakers to beat the 76ers has been backed at as high as +9000,” Wesselink said. “And to make the Finals, the Lakers vs. 76ers matchup has been backed up until a couple of weeks ago at as high as +5000.”
So needless to say, FOX Bet wants no part of a Lakers-Sixers championship series. Especially if that series ends with LeBron James lifting another trophy.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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