NBA free agency roundtable: Winners, losers and value signings

NBA free agency hasn’t even officially started yet and over $1 billion in contracts have been agreed to across the league, including seven deals worth over $100 million.

This week, our NBA reporters — Ric Bucher, Melissa Rohlin and Yaron Weitzman — give their thoughts on the first weekend of free agency and predict what will happen next.

[2023 NBA free agency tracker: Live updates and latest rumors]

1. Who won the first weekend of NBA free agency?

Weitzman: Kyrie Irving. He’s tanked the past two teams he’s played on and seemed to have no one interested in his services other than the Dallas Mavericks. And yet, somehow, Irving walked away with a three-year, $126 million, all of which is guaranteed. Not just that, but that third year is a player-option as well. Kyrie Irving getting the second-most player-friendly deal of any signed during free agency (second only to the four-year max inked by Fred VanVleet) is stunning. And makes him the winner of the first weekend.

Rohlin: Dillon Brooks. In the first round of the playoffs, he made a mockery of himself by trash-talking LeBron James, then not playing well, then dodging the media after losses. Some thought he had played his last game in the NBA. Well, Brooks just agreed to a four-year, $80 million deal with the Houston Rockets. He’s making more than Russell Westbrook, a nine-time All-Star and one-time MVP in 2017, who agreed to a two-year, $7.8 million contract with the LA Clippers. So, in the end, Brooks got the last laugh. 

Bucher: The highest-paid undrafted player in NBA history: Fredderick Edmund Van Vleet. Three years and $130 million means he’ll make more this season than Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic and Devin Booker. Having been an All-Star once in his seven seasons. Having never been on an All-NBA or All-Defense team. Signing for three years, at 29, means he still could land one more sizable contract. Not that he needs it now.

Lakers ‘win free agency,’ retain core, sign Vincent, Hayes, Prince & Reddish | FIRST THINGS FIRST

2. Who appears to be losing?

Weitzman: The Philadelphia 76ers. It’s not over yet, so this is more of an incomplete, but right now it seems like they’re on the verge of losing James Harden for some scraps from the Clippers. And if that’s the case, how long before Joel Embiid asks out?

Rohlin: The Portland Trail Blazers. They had Damian Lillard’s loyalty. All they had to do was build a good roster around him. They failed at that task. Now, he has requested a trade. We will see what happens from here, but it seems as though they squandered a brilliant opportunity with one of the best players in the league.

Bucher: As of right now it’s the Miami Heat. Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller. Those are three rotational players and the only legit-sized center on the roster. Signing Thomas Bryant fills the hole by Zeller going to the Pelicans, but Vincent was the team’s third-best player in the playoffs behind Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Getting Damian Lillard will make everyone forget those losses, but the Heat are going to have to give up other players who were instrumental in them reaching the Finals — Duncan Robinson, Kyle Lowry and possibly Caleb Martin. That’s potentially six players being replaced by one.

3. Who was the best value signing?

Weitzman: Austin Reaves. Four years for a total of $56 million is an absolute steal here. Reaves is a 25-year-old wing who shot nearly 40% from deep last season and is also an excellent pick-and-roll creator. That’s a $20-million-per-year profile, at least. To be clear, it’s not that the Lakers did Reaves dirty:

They just benefited from desire to remain in L.A.

Rohlin: I’m going to go with Reaves as well. He was projected to get offers north of $100 million from outside teams after being the Lakers’ third-leading scorer in the playoffs, averaging 16.9 points on 46.4 percent shooting, while also being a scrappy defender. But the Lakers avoided that by re-signing Reaves to the maximum they could offer without having to match. It was an amazing deal for the Lakers. And Reaves got to return to the franchise for which he had wanted to play since he was a child.

[Lakers building a team to fear as GM Rob Pelinka leaves Russell Westbrook deal behind]

Bucher: Lakers did indeed get Austin Reaves at a great price, but it doesn’t top the Clippers re-signing Russell Westbrook for two years and $7.8 million. Westbrook outscored, out-rebounded and out-assisted Reaves last season. Yes, he’ll turn 35 next season, but he has been fanatical about taking care of his body.

The Clippers re-signed back-up center Mason Plumlee at a great price as well — one year, $5 million. We might’ve been too hasty in projecting the Clippers as a championship contender, but the moribund view of the franchise has definitely changed when guys are signing team-friendly deals to stay.

Russell Westbrook, Clippers agree to two-year, $7.8M deal | FIRST THINGS FIRST

4. Which signing was the biggest-head scratcher?

Weitzman: The Blazers gave Jerami Grant HOW MUCH?! It’s not just that they forked over five years and $160 million for Grant (who, exactly, were they bidding against?). It’s that they did so knowing that Damian Lillard was likely on the verge of asking out, meaning a full-on rebuild was about to begin. This one made and makes no sense.

Rohlin: I have to agree with Yaron. I don’t understand the Trail Blazers’ thought process here. How was this supposed to instill any confidence in Lillard that the franchise was headed in the right direction? Not to take anything away from Grant, but this wasn’t the kind of move that’s going to make your franchise player think this is a championship squad. No wonder Lillard requested out.

Bucher: The Rockets spent $60 million-plus on a backcourt of Fred Van Vleet and Dillon Brooks. One All-Star appearance between them. I like both players, just not at that price for a team already loaded with backcourt talent. It also means that some young player — Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Jabari Smith Jr. — is going to lose his starting job. Sounds great until that player starts griping in the locker room and sulking on the bench. New head coach Ime Udoka is going to have his work cut out for him.

5. What has been your favorite signing of the offseason so far?

Weitzman: Max Strus to the Cavs. Four years and $63 million might seem like a lot, but there wasn’t a team in the NBA more desperate for a wing who could shoot than the Cavs. Strus is going to make a HUGE difference in Cleveland, and fits perfectly alongside their Big Four. 

Rohlin: I really like the Lakers getting Gabe Vincent. He was very impressive during the Heat’s playoff run. He’s unafraid, he’s a great shooter and he has the right attitude. He’s the type of scrappy talent who I think will make a big impact for the Lakers, who clearly see him as an upgrade in the backcourt over Dennis Schroder. Vincent already went from being an undrafted player to making a name for himself with the Heat. Here’s to betting his star will only grow with the Lakers. 

Bucher: I’ll go with a sentimental one — Derrick Rose signing with the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies desperately needed a greater veteran presence and if anyone can convince Ja Morant that his wild assaults on the rim could lead to short-lived stardom, it’s Rose with his firsthand experience. Rose also can show Ja how to be an effective scorer and distributor without the acrobatics, having made that transition himself. That Rose gets to go back and play in front of the people that saw him rise to stardom at the University of Memphis is mere icing.

And with Ja out for the first 25 games, the odds are good that he’ll get more burn than with the Knicks, where he made only 27 regular-season appearances and a single cameo in the playoffs.

Bonus: Where are Damian Lillard and James Harden landing?

Weitzman: Lillard has made clear that Miami is where he wants to be, and Harden, we know, has his sights set on the Clippers. I’m sure both the Sixers and the Blazers will take strong public stances, but in the NBA, the place where a star wants to go is almost always where he ends up.

Rohlin: Lillard will land with the Heat. It’s clear Lillard wants to go there. Jimmy Butler wants him there. And after suffering through so many disappointing seasons with the Trail Blazers, it’s about time Lillard plays for a winning team in the exact situation he wants.

Would Damian Lillard make Heat the best in the Eastern Conference? | SPEAK

As for Harden, he has made it clear he wants to land with the Clippers. The Clippers desperately need help after multiple injury-plagued seasons with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. I bet this goes through as well, so long as  the Clippers can put together a tantalizing-enough package.

Bucher: Star players asking to be traded generally end up where they want to be sent, regardless of whether they have a no-trade clause or trade kicker or not. Donovan Mitchell is the one recent exception that comes to mind and I don’t know that Sixers GM Daryl Morey and Blazers GM Joe Cronin are cut from the same cloth as Jazz team president Danny Ainge, who sent Mitchell to Cleveland instead of Mitchell’s preferred choice, the Knicks. Nor is Mitchell cut from the same cloth as Lillard or Harden, either of whom I could easily see refusing to play if dealt to a team they did not want to join.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He is the author of “Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports.” Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.

Melissa Rohlin is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the league for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, the Bay Area News Group and the San Antonio Express-News. Follow her on Twitter @melissarohlin.

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, “Rebound,” on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and “Yao: A Life In Two Worlds.” He also has a daily podcast, “On The Ball with Ric Bucher.” Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.

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