AFC South X-factors: Who are the keys to success in the division?

Ben Arthur

AFC South Reporter

The teams of the AFC South represent varying levels of the NFL hierarchy — the Jaguars as ascendant contenders, the Colts and Texans are rebuilding, the Titans are somewhere in-between – but each has a player integral to their 2023 reality. 

Here’s an “X-factor” for each team in the division: 

Titans: WR Treylon Burks

It’s probably not hyperbole to say that the Titans’ offense will go as Treylon Burks goes in 2023. As the team’s No. 1 receiver in what appears to be one of the NFL’s worst receiving rooms (on paper), Burks must produce like a WR1 for Tennessee to have a respectable passing game and the ability to take pressure off Derrick Henry, who regularly faces stacked boxes. 

A first-round pick last year, Burks is expected to make big strides in Year 2, after being slowed by asthma and fatigue issues last spring and battling a turf toe injury during his rookie season. But the pressure is amplified considering the Titans have done little to upgrade a wide receiver room that produced the third-fewest receptions (130) and receiving yards (1,590) last season. Tennessee cut Robert Woods, while adding veteran Chris Moore — a rotational receiver at best — and seventh-round rookie Colton Dowell, a product of FCS UT-Martin. 

Burks has shown signs that he’s ready to take the next step. After spending the offseason training in Nashville, the second-year pro arrived for spring workouts and practices leaner and in better shape. He looked more relaxed. He possessed a confidence he never had as a rookie. Will it pay dividends? 

Burks last season caught 33 passes for 444 yards and a touchdown in 11 games.

Colts: LT Bernhard Raimann

The Colts need Bernard Raimann to continue an upward trajectory into 2023 after a positive finish to his rookie season. It would go a long way to helping the development of No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson, which is how Indianapolis‘ 2023 campaign should ultimately be judged. 

As the blindside protector, Raimann plays a critical role on an O-line that was a massive disappointment last season. The unit gave up 60 sacks, second-most in the NFL. 

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After a disastrous starting debut against the Broncos in Week 5 last season, when he gave up five pressures, Raimann produced enough good film to give the Colts a reason to believe he could be their long-term left tackle entering the new season. If he answers that bill, Indianapolis could use its top pick in next year’s draft on a different position. 

Raimann told reporters in the offseason that he’d gained 15 pounds, which should help him to hold up better against opposing edge rushers. 

He made 16 appearances as a rookie in 2022, including 11 starts. 

Jaguars: OLB Travon Walker

If Travon Walker plays to the expectations that come with being a No. 1 overall pick, it would go a long way to improving the pass rush, the Jaguars’ most glaring weakness. 

They tied for second in the NFL in pressures (209) and ranked third in pressure rate (32.9 percent) last season, according to Next Gen Stats. But they tied for 25th in sacks (35). Finishing plays in the trenches must improve for Jacksonville.

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Walker had just 3.5 sacks and an 8.9 percent pressure rate as a rookie. He played on the edge for the Jaguars after lining predominantly inside at Georgia, so the hope is that the comfort with his role could help boost his production in Year 2. Walker in February labeled his rookie season a “growing year.”

The Jaguars’ lack of personnel upgrades to the front increases the pressure on the ex-Georgia star. Outside linebacker Arden Key signed with the Titans in free agency, and defensive lineman Dawuane Smoot remains an unsigned free agent. Together, they accounted for close to a fourth of Jacksonville’s pressures and sacks last season. 

Texans: WR Nico Collins

The Texans don’t have a true No. 1 receiver on their roster after trading Brandin Cooks to the Cowboys, but Nico Collins could develop into one. 

He was on pace for more than 60 receptions and 800 yards last season before a toe issue cut his year short in Week 13. He’s a big-bodied outside receiver (listed at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds) and a fluid athlete. 

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Collins’ issue has been injuries. He’s missed 10 of 34 possible games since joining the Texans as a third-round pick in 2021. 

A healthy Collins would give No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud a dependable option in a wide receiver room that lacks depth, accelerating Houston’s rebuild. 

In 10 games last season, Collins caught 37 passes for 481 yards and two touchdowns.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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