Poland claims Russian tactical nuclear weapons being delivered to Belarus

President Andrzej Duda said the Kremlin is following through on its threat to preposition short-range nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil.

“I was telling (visiting Portuguese President) Sousa about the implementation of the declarations by Vladimir Putin that Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons will be moved to the territory of Belarus,” Duda told a media conference earlier this week.

“Indeed, this process is taking place. We are seeing that.”

He offered no further details or evidence of the move.

But he emphasised the “obvious way it is changing the architecture of security in our part of Europe”.

“It is changing the architecture of security in our immediate neighbourhood, but also of the eastern flank of NATO, at the same time,” he said.

“So, in fact, it is changing the situation for all of the alliance.”

US President Joe Biden has called Putin’s threat to use tactical nuclear weapons “real”. But NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said last week that the alliance had not yet detected any changes to Russia’s nuclear force posture.

Tactical nuclear weapons carry relatively small warheads designed to destroy large concentrations of opposing forces or eliminate obstacles such as well-defended towns.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko boasted in June that he had authorised the deployment of such weapons to his territory to “deter aggression by Poland”.

But Putin appears more expansive in his ambitions.

Kremlin-approved foreign policy analyst Professor Sergei Karaganov has proposed a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Europe – citing the 50,000-strong Polish city of Poznan as a potential target.

He called such an attack a “difficult but necessary decision”.

Explosive rhetoric

The Kremlin has been ramping up its nuclear threats, despite key ally Chairman Xi Jinping warning against such tactics when he visited Moscow in March.

Initially, Putin appeared to comply.

At a June function in St Petersburg, he said there was “no need” to use nuclear weapons while the “existence of the Russia state was not threatened”.

But, last month, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened the Kremlin would unleash its nukes if Ukraine’s counteroffensive were successful. And Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last week warned the US and NATO risk “a situation of direct armed confrontation of nuclear powers”.

“The possession of nuclear arms is today the only possible response to some of the significant external threats to the security of our country,” he told a state-owned news service.

And Kremlin spokesman Alexei Polischuk told state news agency RIA Novosti that the deployment to Belarus was “in response to the long-term destabilising nuclear policy of NATO and Washington and the fundamental changes that have recently taken place in key areas of European security”.

Their withdrawal, he said, was contingent on the “complete withdrawal of all US nuclear weapons to US territory and the elimination of the corresponding infrastructure in Europe”.

“This forced containment measure is designed to ensure the security of the Union State (a Moscow-Minsk alliance), which, as you know, has a common defence space,” he stated.

But the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank believes such threats to be part of a propaganda and intimidation mission to isolate Ukraine.

“Russian invocations of nuclear threats and nuclear doctrine are part of an information operation meant to discourage Ukraine and the West but do not represent any material Russian intent to employ nuclear weapons,” it said.

Putin’s plaything

Lukashenko warned that Belarus would “immediately respond with everything we have” if “provoked” by Poland, Lithuania or Latvia.

“We will not tarry, wait, and the rest. We will use the entire arsenal of our weapons for deterrence,” he told the state-controlled Belta news service.

He explained that Russia would build facilities to house and maintain the nuclear weapons in Belarus.

“We didn’t bring nuclear weapons here in order to scare someone,” he added.

“Yes, nuclear weapons represent a strong deterring factor. But these are tactical nuclear weapons, not strategic ones.

“This is why we will use them immediately once aggression is launched against us.”

Lukashenko has been Putin’s greatest friend since the shambolic invasion of Ukraine was launched in February last year.

It’s no surprise.

If Putin falls, Lukashenko falls.

“Putin is now more mobilised, more cunning, and wiser. Our adversaries need to know it,” Lukashenko said, adding: “Nobody will overthrow Putin today”.

His own autocracy is heavily reliant upon the Kremlin to keep it in power.

And that’s why Belarus provided its territory as a launch pad for a massive armoured push towards Kyiv. It made its rail and logistics networks available to support the assault.

But Lukashenko has yet to commit his forces to the actual fight. He told Belta that Belarus would “never get involved in this war” – unless “Ukrainians cross the border”.

“We will keep helping Russia. They are our ally,” he added.

Lukashenko handed over Belarusian military facilities to the exiled Russian Wagner convict mercenary force in June after its failed coup attempt. These troops are now reportedly helping train his military.

But Poland says Wagner forces have been positioned near a thin strip of land separating Belarus from the Russian Baltic Sea enclave of Kaliningrad.

In response, Warsaw has detained two Russians for spying and said it would reposition up to 10,000 troops to defend its border.

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel