Russia coup: Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin threatens to march on Moscow

Wagner Mercenary Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is threatening to march on Moscow after President Vladimir Putin’s secret police announced they had charged him with inciting “armed rebellion”.

A new audio statement by Prigozhin at 9am states Wagner troops have “crossed state borders in all areas” and are now entering the Russian region of Rostov. He threatens to “destroy anything standing in their way”.

Unconfirmed reports claim military equipment is streaming onto the streets of the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, a key logistics hub some 100km behind the Ukrainian border and 200km from the intense fighting of Kyiv’s counter-attack.

Prigozhin this week dramatically escalated his war of words with the Kremlin’s military chiefs, accusing “these scumbags” of sabotaging his troops and losing the war with Ukraine.

Then, late yesterday, Prigozhin accused Russia’s Ministry of Defence of killing a “huge” number of his paramilitary troops in a direct attack on a Wagner Group military emplacement.

He responded to the alleged attack by threatening: “The next step is ours”.

“The command council of the Wagner Private Military Company has reached a decision,” he declared via Telegram last night.

“The evil that the country’s military leadership perpetuates must be stopped. They disregard the lives of soldiers … Therefore, those who have killed our guys today and have taken the lives of tens, many tens of thousands of Russian soldiers will be punished.”

This appears to have been the final straw for President Putin.

His Federal Security Service announced it had launched a criminal case against the powerful oligarch. It said the mercenary leader would be investigated for incitement of mutiny – a charge that carries a 20-year prison sentence. It demanded his Wagner troops cease obeying his orders.

The Wagner Group of mercenaries has long been regarded as President Putin’s “unofficial army”, using the plausible deniability of commercial independence to mask Moscow’s involvement in fighting in Ukraine, Syria and Libya.

It was brought into the Ukraine war to help stabilise the front lines after Russia’s formal armed forces failed spectacularly in their bid to seize Ukraine’s capital Kyiv in the opening weeks of the 2022 invasion.

But Prigozhin’s bravado – and apparent favoured status within Putin’s inner circle – soon set the mercenary leader’s relationship with the Kremlin’s military leadership on a rapidly accelerating downward spiral.

Rumours of coup

Prigozhin’s social media declaration that he will march on Moscow is explicit in its detail: “No one resist. Anyone who attempts to resist we will consider to be a threat and eliminate them immediately, including any checkpoints in our way. Any aircraft above our heads. I ask everyone to remain calm. Not to succumb to provocations. To stay in their homes. Preferably not to go out into the streets along our route. After we finish what has been started, we will return to the front and defend our homeland.”

Russian news agency RIA Novosti reports Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying: “Putin is aware of the situation unfolding around Prigozhin. All necessary measures are being taken.”

“According to the National Anti-Terrorism Committee, the allegations spread on behalf of Yevgeny Prigozhin have no basis,” the state-controlled news service reports.

“In connection with these statements, the FSB of Russia initiated a criminal case on the fact of calling for an armed rebellion. We demand that illegal actions be stopped immediately.”

Unverified social media reports suggest military movements along the highway between Ukraine and Moscow. But Prigozhin is also the chief of Russia’s unofficial army of internet trolls tasked with spreading disinformation and confusion to back his political agenda.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says any coup attempt by Prigozhin is not likely to be successful.

Nor is any attempt to overthrow Russia’s military leadership.

“(It is) most likely that Prigozhin fully intends for Wagner to move against MoD leadership and forcibly remove them from power, more likely against the Southern Military District command in Rostov-on-Don but possibly also against Moscow,” ISW states.

“Prigozhin’s likely intention was to gain the allegiance of senior Russian officers and military personnel, but he is unlikely to secure sufficient military support considering that Wagner-affiliated Army General Sergei Surovikin denounced Prigozhin’s call for armed rebellion.”

Whatever the outcome, Prigozhin’s move will dramatically undermine Putin’s power.

“Prigozhin was allowed to go further than anyone with his public critiques. He crossed many red lines. And now he has gone miles over any red line. Doesn’t make Putin look good, but this is the end of the line for his chef,” says Centre for European Policy Analysis analyst Dr Alina Polyakova.

Friendly fire

The Wagner Group took to Telegram’s social media service to accuse Russia’s military of launching an air strike against one of its encampments “from the rear”.

“A missile attack was launched on the camps of PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin stated.

“According to eyewitnesses, the strike was delivered from the rear. That is, it was delivered by the military of the RF Ministry of Defence.”

Russia’s Ministry of Defence used Telegram to deny the claim.

It said President Putin was aware of the situation.

It said Wagner’s story did “not correspond to reality”.

It accused Wagner of an “informational provocation”.

At the heart of the crisis is a personal clash between Prigozhin and Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu. This week he accused Shoigu of “cowardly fleeing” the Rostov region in southern Russia and ordering troops to sabotage Wagner operations.

Prigozhin demanded Russia’s military leadership “should be held responsible for the genocide of the Russian people, the murder of tens of thousands of Russian citizens and the transfer of Russian territories to the enemy. Moreover, the transfer is deliberate, just like the murder of Russian citizens and genocide”.

Earlier in the week, Prigozhin accused the Ministry of Defence of starting the war under false pretences and of being “a bunch of fools”.

“In the first days of the war, Shoigu killed thousands of Russian soldiers. He destroyed the most combat-ready part of the army. And this was a very small part of the army as it had been led by fools for many years, and those who were any good left,” he said.

He accused “dipshit” generals of botching every aspect of Putin’s “special military operation”.

“The Ukrainian army is crushing through the Russian army. We’re getting washed in blood. Nobody’s providing reserves, and there’s no control,” says Prigozhin.

“But since there’s no control and no military successes, the Defence Ministry’s leadership is deliberately deceiving the president.”

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel