Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens Poland sparking attack fears

A series of bizarre comments over the weekend has further raised tensions in an already stressed Eastern Europe.

First came the direct threat early on Saturday morning.

“Aggression against Belarus will mean aggression against the Russian Federation,” Putin told a meeting of his Security Council being streamed live.

“We will respond to it with all means at our disposal.”

He was responding to Warsaw’s decision to move military units closer to its border with Minsk amid hostile rhetoric from the Wagner convict mercenary army exiled there after its failed coup against Putin last month.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko jokingly admitted this threat in a follow-up meeting with Putin on Sunday. saying he had to restrain Wagner from invading Poland.

“We are being bothered by Wagner asking us to let them go West,” he said.

But Lukashenko and Putin then tried to justify a fresh military intervention to prevent Poland from trying to “rip off a western chunk” of Ukraine.

“It’s well known that they dream of Belarusian lands as well,” added Putin.

Lukashenko’s attempt to explain such intervention in the face of Putin’s invasion was surreal: “The secession of western Ukraine, the fragmentation of Ukraine and the transfer of land to Poland are unacceptable,” he said in the meeting, a transcript of which has been posted online.

“And if the population of western Ukraine needs this, we will, of course, support them.”

Dictators’ gambit

Lukashenko has been Putin’s ally since Russian forces crossed into Ukrainian territory from Belarus in February 2022, although he’s been unwilling to commit his own forces to the unfolding fiasco.

But he has allowed Moscow to reposition its nuclear weapons to Belarusian territory. And he’s provided Putin with an “out” for the embarrassment of dealing with the convict Wagner mercenary army after it rose in revolt in June.

Now, Putin is attempting to incite fears that Poland secretly desires to “take back the historic lands” it lost under border changes ordered by the Soviet Union’s Joseph Stalin after World War II.

Poland was incensed.

On Saturday morning, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki tweeted: “Stalin was a war criminal, guilty of the death of hundreds of thousands of Poles. The historical truth is not subject to discussion.”

Russia’s ambassador to Poland was immediately summoned to explain the “provocative declarations by Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as threats and other inimical actions by the Russian Federation with regard to Poland and our allies”.

“The meeting was very brief,” said Polish deputy foreign minister Pawel Jablonski.

“The frontiers between countries are absolutely untouchable, and Poland is opposed to any kind of revision thereof.”

Implausible justification

“The detachment of Western Ukraine, the dismemberment of Ukraine and the transfer of land to Poland is unacceptable,” Lukashenko told Putin yesterday.

“I told you a long time ago. We saw this six months ago and discussed it beforehand.

“Why did I say all this? For us, Vladimir Vladimirovich, this is unacceptable.”

Polish troops have not crossed into Ukrainian territory as Russian troops have done. Nor are they mobilising to do so.

But Lukashenko says Ukrainian land was being given to Poland as “payment” for assisting Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

“The Americans support this,” Lukashenko claimed.

He pointed to the Polish announcement earlier this month that it would move 500 police officers to the Belarusian border amid a surge of migrants and refugees entering the country from that direction.

“We can see that the ground is being prepared,” Lukashenko claimed.

“For example, one of the brigades found its place 40 kilometres from Brest.”

Poland pointed to Wagner’s military exercises with Belarusian forces as having prompted the relocation of its own forces.

“Training or joint exercises of the Belarusian army and the Wagner group are undoubtedly a provocation,” said National Security Committee secretary Zbigniew Hoffmann.

But Lukashenko’s list of grievances gets even more surreal.

He accused Ukraine of “actively involving mercenaries” in its defence against Russian invasion forces – even though those same invasion forces have involved mercenary groups such as Wagner.

And he offered the former prisoner fighters sanctuary after their failed coup against Putin.

Rogue convicts

Some 5000 exiled Wagner mercenaries are believed to have assembled inside Belarus. Up to 5000 more may be on their way.

Their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, made his first public appearance last week since abandoning his drive on Moscow, stating his forces would train the Belarus military while preparing to move to Africa.

Putin, however, had other ideas. He has appointed his own leader for the Wagner Group.

Exactly who is in control of the convict conscripts remains unclear.

But the presence of this poorly disciplined force near the Polish border has raised concerns across Europe and the NATO alliance.

On Saturday, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius reaffirmed the terms of the NATO alliance with Poland. Article 5 of the alliance states any attack against one NATO member will be regarded as an attack against all.

Lukashenko jokingly conceded the threat was real.

“We began to be bothered by the PMC Wagner, asking to go to the West. ‘Allow us?’ I said, why do you want to go to the West there? (And quietly, we’re in control of what is happening) ‘Well, we’ll go on a tour to Warsaw and Rzeszow’, they said,” he told Putin on Sunday.

Warsaw is Poland’s capital. Rzeszow is a significant Polish military facility.

“But of course, I am keeping them in central Belarus, like we agreed,” Lukashenko added.

“We are controlling what is happening,” he continued, adding: “They (Wagner) are in a bad mood.”

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel