Taylor Swift breaks her political silence and finally wades into the US presidential election race – sort of

The megastar has been the subject of criticism, speculation and wild conspiracy theories for several months now, with Republicans concerned she could use her massive influence to encourage young people to vote for Joe Biden in November.

But her message to her 283 million followers on Instagram today drew a mixed response.

“Today, March 5, is the presidential primary in Tennessee and 16 other states and territories,” she wrote in a Story.

“I wanted to remind you guys to vote the people who most represent YOU into power. If you haven’t already, make a plan to vote today.

“Whether you’re in Tennessee or somewhere else in the US, check your polling place and times at vote.org.”

Cautious tone divides fans

It wasn’t the emphatic endorsement of Mr Biden that many expected – and either hoped for or dreaded – and that seemed to irk some observers elsewhere on social media.

One took to X, formerly Twitter, to applaud her for continuing to encourage young people to register to vote, in a country where voting is optional, and the youth participation rate has historically lagged other demographics.

“But if she can do this – she can speak on a genocide right???!” one critic wrote, referring to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.

Another claimed Swift had “begun interfering” in the election, attacking her for telling “young female fans to vote the candidate that ‘most represents you into power’”.

Others were frustrated that the messaging from Swift didn’t go far enough, while conservatives repeated the view that she should “stick to music” and avoid politics entirely.

Swift sparks fierce backlash

So fearful are conservatives about what such an endorsement might mean for presumed nominee Donald Trump that Swift has copped relentless attacks, Matt Harris an associate professor of political science at Park University in the US, said.

“Fox News host Jesse Watters suggested that Swift may be a Pentagon asset,” Mr Harris wrote in analysis for The Conversation.

“Former [Republican] presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy tweeted that he thinks Swift and [boyfriend Tracis] Kelce are being artificially propped up by the media pending an upcoming Swift endorsement of Joe Biden.

“[Far-right cable news channel] OAN referred to the couple as a ‘massive Super Bowl psy-op,’ a brainwashing campaign designed to indoctrinate citizens to an elite agenda and away from religion.”

There’s a strong possibility Swift may endorse Mr Biden, as she did during the last presidential election, Mr Harris said, and the youth vote gains more and more importance in an ageing America.

“Swifties are largely suburban and young,” he pointed out.

“Almost half are Millennials, and over 10% belong to Gen Z. They represent a slice of the youth vote that candidates have attempted to court for decades, and the suburbs are increasingly a battleground in the country’s urban-rural divide.”

He points to an Instagram post by Swift in 2023 encouraging young Americans to register to vote, leading to some 35,000 new enrolments.

But a poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies last month found a Swift endorsement could have a net result,” with 18 per cent of the public saying they’d be more likely to support a Swift-backed candidate and 17 per cent saying they would be less likely”.

‘We will vote you out’

During the last presidential election, Swift openly criticised Mr Trump in the final months of the divisive campaign and formally endorsed his rival Mr Biden.

In May, she took to X and wrote: “After stoking the fires of white supremacy and racism your entire presidency, you have the nerve to feign moral superiority before threatening violence? ‘When the looting starts the shooting starts’??? We will vote you out in November.”

Those strong examples aside, Swift has seemed reluctant to pin herself and her remarks to a party or ideology.

Instead, she has stuck to urging her fans to register to vote.

In September last year, Swift posted a message on Instagram that read: “I’ve been so lucky to see so many of you guys at my U.S. shows recently. I’ve heard you raise your voices, and I know how powerful they are. Make sure you’re ready to use them in our elections this year!”

She posted a link to vote.org and the organisation said it received almost 35,000 new registrations as a direct result.

The group’s chief executive Andrea Hailey said the site averaged 13,000 visitors every 30 seconds.

Research indicates the majority of Americans consider themselves ‘Swifties’ in some form and a poll in mid-2023 by Echelon Insights found 50 per cent of voters view her favourably.

That’s a higher approval rating than both Mr Trump and Mr Biden enjoy.

One need only look at the numbers surrounding the American leg of her global Eras tour, where an average of 72,000 people attended each concert, grossing an estimated $13 million in ticket sales.

Swift performed a total of 52 shows across the US.

Whether or not Swift endorses Mr Biden over coming months could matter less than how Mr Trump responds to it, Mr Harris suggested.

“A Swift endorsement of Biden could bring out some of Trump’s worst impulses.

“Perhaps the effect of his response on how voters view him could be more important than her endorsement of Biden.”

Why is Super Tuesday important?

Americans in 15 states and one territory vote in presidential primaries today – the largest number in the whole process, which confirms each major party’s candidate for president.

Mr Biden faces no serious rival, so he’s essentially locked in.

Mr Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, pundits say, but he still faces a challenge from former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.

And 11 of the 15 states allow all voters – not just registered Republicans – to back for either Mr Trump or Ms Haley.

There’s more at stake today than at any other point in the nomination race.